Asymmetric unemployment rate dynamics in Australia

The unemployment rate in Australia is modelled as an assymmetric and non-linear function of aggregate demand, productivity, real wages and unemployment benefits. Negative changes in aggregate demand cause the unemployment rate to rise rapidly, while real wage rigidity contributes its to slow adjustment back towards a lower level of unemployment. The model is developed by exploiting recent developments in automated model-selection procedures.

A smooth-transition model of the Australian unemployment rate

Models of the aggregate unemployment rate have traditionally been estimated from structural models of the labour market or in a linear single-equation framework. However, theory as well as evidence suggest that the unemployment rate is asymmetric and should be modelled in a non-linear framework. In this paper the unemployment rate in Australia is modelled as a non-linear function of aggregate demand and real wages. Negative changes in aggregate demand cause the unemployment rate to rise rapidly, while real wage rigidity contributes its to slow adjustment back towards a lower level of unemployment. The model is developed by exploiting recent developments in automated model-selection procedures.unemployment;non-linearity;dynamic modelling;aggregate demand;real wages

The Generic Properties of Equilibrium Correction Mechanisms

Linear dynamic equilibrium correction mechanisms are shown to follow from the discretisation of continuous economic processes with steady-state solutions. In addition, the proposed procedure on the coefficients of the dynamic econometric model.Equilibrium correctionn dynamic modelling; difference schemes; power series representation

A European-type wage equation from an American-style labor market: Evidence from a panel of Norwegian manufacturing industries in the 1930s

Using a newly constructed panel of manufacturing industry data for interwar Norway, we estimate a long-run wage curve for the 1930s that has all the modern features of being homogeneous in prices, proportional to productivity, and having an unemployment elasticity of -0.1. This result is more typical of contemporary European than U.S. wage equations, even if the labour market in interwar Norway possessed distinctively more ‘American’ features than those associated with present-day European welfare states. We also present some new Monte Carlo evidence on the properties of the estimators used.wages, depression, panel data, dynamics

The Empirical (ir)Relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

We give an appraisal of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPC) as an empirical model of European inflation. We show that existing evidence reported in favour of the NPC on Euro-area and country data is due to a corroborative research strategy. In particular, goodness-of-fit is a weak criterion, since the NPC-fit is well approximated by a random walk. Instead we report the outcome of more critical tests, and the importance of modelling a system that includes the forcing variables as well as the rate of inflation is emphasized.Finally, encompassing tests are applied to open economy versions of the NPC for UK and Norway.New Keynesian Phillips curves; Euro inflation; UK inflation; Norwegian inflation; Monetary policy; Dynamic stability conditions; Evaluation; Encompassing tests

Monetary policy and asset prices: To respond or not?

We investigate whether there is a case for asset prices in interest rates rules within a small econometric model of the Norwegian economy, modeling the interdependence of the real economy, credit and three classes of assets prices: housing prices, equity prices and the nominal exchange rate. We compare the performance of simple and efficient interest rate rules that allow for response to movements in asset prices to the performance of more standard monetary policy rules. We find that including housing prices and equity prices in the policy rules can improve macroeconomic performance in terms of both nominal and real economic stability. In contrast, a response to nominal exchange rate fluctuations can induce excess volatility in general and prove detrimental to macroeconomic stability.Monetary policy, asset prices, simple interest rate rules, econometric model

A European-type wage equation from an American-style labor market: Evidence from a panel of Norwegian manufacturing industries in the 1930s

Using a newly constructed panel of manufacturing industry data for interwar Norway, we estimate a long-run wage curve for the 1930s that has all the modern features of being homogeneous in prices, proportional to productivity, and having an unemployment elasticity of -0.1. This result is more typical of contemporary European than U.S. wage equations, even if the labour market in interwar Norway possessed distinctively more ‘American’ features than those associated with present-day European welfare states. We also present some new Monte Carlo evidence on the properties of the estimators used.wages, depression, panel data, dynamics

Econometric Inflation Targeting

Inflation targeting requires inflation forecasts, yet most models in the literature are either theoretical or calibrated. The motivation for this paper is therefore threefold: We seek to test and implement an econometric model forforecasting inflation in Norway–one economy recently opting for formal inflation targeting rather than a managed nominal exchange rate. We also seek to quantify the relative importance of the di?erent transmission mechanisms– with basis in empirical estimates rather than calibrated values. Finally, we want to focus on and exploit econometric issues required in the design and estimation of econometric models used for inflation forecasting and policy analysis.inflation targeting; monetary policy; wages and prices; cointegration; dynamic modelling

Model Specification and Inflation Forecast Uncertainty

Three classes of inflation models are discussed: Standard Phillips curves, New Keynesian Phillips curves and Incomplete Competition models. Their relative merits in explaining and forecasting inflation are investigated theoretically and empirically. We establish that Standard Phillips-curve forecasts are robust to types of structural breaks that harm the Incomplete Competion model forecasts, but exaggerate forecast uncertainty in periods with no breaks. As the potential biases in after-break forecast errors for the Incomplete Competition model can be remedied by intercept corrections, it offers the best prospect of successful inflation forecasting.monetary policy; inflation targeting; wages and prices; model specification; encompassing; model uncertainty; forecasting